We identify major sources of global production forecast error and are developing a methodology and model to provide a valuation of improved market information for improvement of crop forecasts and early warning systems.
Timely and accurate information is crucial for improving market functioning and enhancing market transparency. Earth Observation (EO) data are a reliable and scientific source of globally used information, especially within the crop production estimations community. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) utilizes EO data to improve their forecasts, which are a global benchmark for crop production data - not only for producers, but for policymakers, markets and different agricultural actors around the globe. Our analysis of the USDA data will demonstrate the value of improved EO data to crop forecasting and the value they bring to consumers, producers and taxpayers.