From El Niño to Early Action: Transforming Drought Preparedness

FEWS NET scientists recently published a peer-reviewed article titled “Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure” in the journal, Nature Communications. Amid increasing climate variability and extreme weather events, strengthening systems for early warning is essential for timely humanitarian response. Given that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather patterns and crop yields in many parts of the world, researchers leveraged the multiyear skill in ENSO predictions to increase lead times for preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts. The research found yield forecasts to be most skillful for maize in Southeast Africa and Southeast Asia, and wheat in parts of South and Central Asia, Australia, and Southeast South America.

The ENSO-based preseason crop yield forecast system is now operational and has been used by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to monitor yield outlooks for the coming seasons. A recent example is the June 2023 outlook for Southern Africa. Based on the June 2023 ENSO forecast (Figure 1), a below-average maize yield outlook was issued up to a year in advance of the harvest. FEWS NET warned that due to the potential influence of El Niño, precipitation is likely to be below-average in parts of Southern Africa from December 2023 to March 2024 (the main growing season), significantly reducing crop production and increasing the number of acutely food-insecure households.

Figure 1. Official NOAA El Niño Southern Oscillation forecast issued in June 2023 based on Niño3.4 index.  A greater than 90% chance is forecasted for El Niño conditions through January to March 2024 (shown in red). Credit: NOAA/CPC (2023).

Forecasts such as these helped to inform international partners and national governments, who rolled out anticipatory actions to mitigate potential impacts. In August 2023, ahead of the main planting season in southern Africa, the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) mobilized efforts and funding towards priority actions such as providing drought tolerant short cycle crop seeds (FAO, 2023). Also, by September 2023, the World Food Program (WFP) had released $12.8 million to implement anticipatory actions and mitigate potential impacts in southern African countries (WFP, 2023).

Figure 2. Crop conditions over southern Africa as of February 28, 2024. Shadings indicate conditions with orange (poor) and yellow (watch). Icons indicate the main drivers. Bottom left map shows the maize calendar. For most regions crops are in the vegetative – reproductive stage. Credit: GEOGLAM Crop Monitor (2024, March 7) Southern Africa Maize 1 Map, Crop Monitor for Early Warning (No.91, Pg.7) Link to Report.

As the season progressed, a record dry spell of close to 40 days hit several regions in late January through February 2024 (during critical months for crop development), leading to permanent wilting of crops in parts of Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Zambia, and Malawi (Figure 2). By May 2024, the four governments had declared a national drought emergency due to widespread crop failure and heightened food insecurity. A regional humanitarian appeal was made by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to augment domestic resources of the affected member states.

In June, as forecasted, the end of season harvest was well below-average in many southern African countries due to El Niño induced drought and above-average temperatures (Figure 3) (GEOGLAM). An estimated 20.9 million people were severely food insecure and the region was grappling with one of its worst cholera outbreaks in decades (OCHA, 2024).

Figure 3. End of season maize conditions across southern Africa as of June 28, 2024. Shadings indicate conditions with blue (exceptional) and red (failure). Icons show main climate drivers. Credit: GEOGLAM Crop Monitor (2024, July 4) Southern Africa Maize 1 Map, Crop Monitor for Early Warning (No.95, Pg. 10) Link to Report.

Looking into the future, FEWS NET scientists hope that longer lead times in crop yield forecasts will lead to improved preparedness and response. These advances in famine early warning systems present an opportunity for humanitarian agencies, national governments, and communities to mobilize resources and pre-position relief to avert emergency mobilization. Strengthening the integration of ENSO-based preseason crop yield forecasts in famine early warning at national and regional scales, can enhance resilience to climate-induced shocks, reduce vulnerability, and safeguard livelihoods in affected regions.

Key References

Anderson, W., Shukla, S., Verdin, J., Hoell, A., Justice, C., Barker, B., … & McNally, A. (2024). Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure. Nature Communications, 15(1), 7262. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-51555-8

Original Publication

This post was written by Daniella Alaso and originally published at https://blog.chc.ucsb.edu/?p=1493.