*Front page of the 100th CM4EW report published in December 2024*

The GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning (CM4EW) released its 100th report this month! Created in 2016, the CM4EW reports provide monthly consensus-based information regarding expected crop yield outcomes for countries at risk of food insecurity, in partnership with the primary agriculture and food security monitoring organizations globally. The monthly reports evaluate the growing conditions for staple crops with regional food security implications across multiple seasons, providing key evidence to support early and proactive policy interventions. The CM4EW uses a consensus-based approach to evaluate the monthly crop conditions, bringing together information from regional and national experts across different organizations, ground reports, weather monitoring systems, and other region-specific sources to provide relevant, timely, and actionable information to decision makers. Since its inception, the CM4EW has become a trusted and reliable source of agricultural conditions and is regularly used to inform humanitarian and food security decisions at scale.

History of GEOGLAM and the Crop Monitors

In 2008 and again in 2010/11, rapid spikes in global food prices had severe negative implications worldwide, including widespread food insecurity as well as political and economic instability. The price shocks led to increased global awareness of the need for better agricultural monitoring and data transparency, which ultimately prompted the G20 heads of state to endorse the creation of two new initiatives in 2011: the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and the Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM). AMIS aims to enhance global food market transparency, and GEOGLAM aims to use satellite monitoring and Earth Observations systems to enhance projections of global food production. Together, these two initiatives help to provide early warning of potential food supply shortages at the global, national, and regional scales.

*Chart depicting rapid global food price spikes in 2008 and 2010/11 and the subsequent initiation of GEOGLAM by the G20 in 2011*

Within this framework, the Crop Monitor for AMIS (CM4AMIS) reports were developed in 2013 to provide regular and reliable crop condition information relating to expected crop yield outcomes for countries considered major producers or exporters. The CM4AMIS reports cover the four major staple crops, including wheat, maize, rice, and soybean, and are published on a monthly basis in an effort to provide timely in-season information that can be acted upon by national or global organizations in the event of a possible food supply shortage.

Recognizing the need for this information in countries at risk of food insecurity, where crop production impacts are uncertain and can directly affect food availability, in 2016, GEOGLAM partnered with major global agriculture and food security monitoring organizations to develop the Crop Monitor for Early Warning (CM4EW) reports. While the CM4AMIS reports focus on providing crop condition information for countries considered major producers and exporters, the CM4EW reports focus on countries considered at risk of food insecurity and cover crops with significant regional importance, such as wheat, millet, maize, rice, sorghum, and beans.

As the Crop Monitors developed, they began to include more detailed and country-specific assessments to enhance the understanding of crop conditions at different scales and provide targeted early warnings of potential food production shortfalls. This established the basis for the National Crop Monitor reports, which evolved to provide localized insights for countries with significant food security concerns and are developed with experts and organizations within the countries they cover.

Furthermore, in 2022, the Global Crop Monitor reports were developed to provide crop condition information for all monitored countries in a consolidated format. Additionally, the Global reports provide supplemental information that is not available in either the CM4AMIS or CM4EW reports, including a chart to depict global staple crop condition changes compared to the previous month and previous year, crop condition maps and pie charts at the global scale, and crop condition information for additional countries that are not considered key global producers or necessarily at risk of food insecurity (e.g., Chile and Uruguay).

Crop Monitor for Early Warning Evolution & Expansion

In 2016, the first CM4EW report was published in response to the developing El Niño driven drought in Southern Africa in an effort to build consensus on crop growing conditions and bring awareness to the potential impacts to production outcomes. The first report was four pages and covered only three regions in Africa, including East Africa, West Africa, and Southern Africa.

From this starting point, the CM4EW has since developed into a critical source for science driven and consensus-based assessments of crop conditions across seven world regions, including East Africa, West Africa, Southern Africa, the Middle East & North Africa, Central & South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central America & the Caribbean, encompassing four continents. Along with the expanded geographical scope of the reports, the network of partners has also grown to include over 16 leading agriculture and food security monitoring organizations worldwide.

CM4EW partners include the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET), World Food Programme (WFP), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), European Commission Joint Research Centre (EC JRC), GEOGLAM Asia Rice, ASEAN Food Security Information System (AFSIS), Agricultural Research Council (ARC), IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), University of California Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Center (UCSB CHC), and the national ministries of agriculture across several countries, among others.

*Front page of the* *first CM4EW report published in February 2016* *(left) compared to the front page of the 100th CM4EW report published in December 2024 (right)*

Building on the growth of CM4EW, the community partnered with the University of California Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Center (UCSB CHC) in 2018 to produce regional climate outlook and seasonal forecast alerts as key elements of reporting. These climate outlooks provide vital information on how crop conditions are expected to develop based on reliable forecasts. Currently, UCSB CHC produces up to four regional climate outlooks per month, which are integrated into the CM4EW monthly reports to provide timely insights on active crop regions.

In addition to the regional climate outlooks, seasonal forecast alerts are also included to enhance early warning by highlighting specific weather concerns before the start of the cropping season that could negatively impact crop conditions. These outlooks and alerts are produced with feedback from the regional analysts and in coordination with the World Meteorological Organization Climate Outlook Forums where available. This year, critical outlooks were published on topics such as El Niño driven drought in Southern Africa, heavy rains and flooding in East Africa, drought in the Middle East and North Africa, and anticipated La Niña impacts for 2025 production, providing key information for potential production outcomes.

Development of in Depth Special Reports at the Request of UNOCHA

While the CM4EW reports provide detailed insights into current crop conditions and projected yield outcomes on a monthly basis, there are occasions when additional context on emerging climatic situations is essential to fully understand the potential impacts. In 2019, the GEOGLAM Crop Monitors, at the request of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), produced the first Special Report covering the impacts of main season drought and the passage of Cyclone Idai in Southern Africa. Developed on an ad hoc basis, the Special Reports offer timely analysis of climate-driven challenges to food production, examining the impacts of events like El Niño and La Niña as well as natural disasters such as droughts, floods, and cyclones.

These reports help equip decision-makers with essential information for guiding food security and agricultural interventions. For example, following the transition to an El Niño event in June 2023, two Special Reports were developed to provide insights into anticipated climate and agricultural impacts. The first report provided a global overview of El Niño's potential effects on global crop yields and gave insight into historical trends such as improved soybean yields alongside potential declines in rice and wheat yields. Additionally, the second report focused on the potential challenges faced during the main growing season in Central America, where El Niño tends to result in below-average precipitation with negative impacts to crop production.

*Historical crop yield conditions during El Niño events for wheat, maize, rice, soybeans, and sorghum, as depicted in the* *August 2023 Special Report*

Crop Monitor for Early Warning in Action

As we look back on the past 100 reports of CM4EW, key events reported by the Crop Monitor community have shaped our collective understanding of food security vulnerabilities and the impacts of climate on crop production worldwide. More extreme outcomes, such as severe and prolonged droughts, record-breaking temperatures, persistent flooding, and unexpected pest outbreaks, are becoming more frequent and pronounced, highlighting the growing volatility of global food production in the face of changing climate patterns.

Widespread La Niña induced drought and crop failure across the Horn of Africa during 2016 to 2017

From mid-2016 into mid-2017, eastern East Africa experienced a severe drought, resulting in several consecutive poor rainfall seasons from October to December 2016 and from March to May into June to September 2017. This drought resulted in crop failure across several countries and severely impacted livestock conditions, particularly in Ethiopia, Somalia, and eastern Kenya, and left more than 16 million people in urgent need of food assistance. In areas of central and northern Somalia, the drought was more severe than that of 2010 which contributed to the 2010 to 2011 humanitarian crisis and famine in Somalia. Crop Monitor reporting played a key role during the 2016/17 drought, supporting coordinated monitoring efforts and enhanced information provision to decision makers.

*Crop conditions map synthesizing end of season conditions for East Africa as of January 28th, 2017, as depicted in the* *February 2017 CM4EW report*. The map depicts several areas with poor to failure crop yield outcomes, following the 2016-2017 La Niña induced drought.

Historic consecutive season La Niña induced drought impacts in East Africa from 2020 to 2023

From mid-2020 to mid-2023, extended La Niña conditions contributed to severe prolonged drought impacts in East Africa, resulting in consecutive crop failures, millions of livestock deaths, widespread displacement, and pushing Somalia to the brink of famine. La Niña events are typically associated with below-average rainfall in the region, which exacerbated agricultural and food security challenges for three consecutive years. Throughout this period, the CM4EW reports provided critical, timely updates on the evolving drought impacts. Prior to each season, the reports highlighted the elevated risk of poor rainfall and potential crop stress, enabling early warnings and preparedness measures. As each season progressed, the reports also provided regular updates on crop conditions, documenting water shortages and poor to failure crop yield outcomes due to the persistent drought conditions. In addition, a Special Report was developed in May 2022, offering additional insights into the prolonged effects of multi-season drought on crop production and food security.

Areas with below-normal seasonal rainfall totals and poor rainfall distribution during OND 2020, MAM 2021, OND 2021 and the then estimate for MAM 2022 (left) and Eastern Horn of Africa MAM and OND season SPI since 1981 (right), as depicted in the *May 2022 Special Report*. Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

*Crop conditions map synthesizing Maize 1 conditions as of August 28th, 2022, as depicted in the* *September 2022 CM4EW report*. The map depicts several areas with poor to failure crop yield outcomes, following four consecutive below-average rainfall seasons during a prolonged La Niña event.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy impacts in Southern Africa in 2023

Additionally, the CM4EW reports have documented the impacts of severe weather events on agriculture and rural communities. The April 2023 CM4EW report featured a Special Highlight detailing the damage caused by two tropical cyclones to main season crops in Southern Africa. Following publication, this information was expanded in a subsequent Special Report with additional insights and graphics. The report also incorporated findings from a field assessment conducted by the Malawi Ministry of Agriculture, in collaboration with FAO and NASA Harvest, to evaluate the extent of the flood damage.

*Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 conditions as of March 28th, as depicted in the* *April 2023 CM4EW report* *(left) and flooded area extent over cropland in southern Malawi using satellite detected surface water from RCM from 3/14/2023 over the NASA Harvest cropland mask, as depicted in the* *April 2023 Special Report* *(right).*

Historically strong El Niño induced drought impacts in Southern Africa for the 2023/24 main agricultural season

More recently, following the prolonged La Niña event, a shift to El Niño conditions in June 2023 raised concerns for dry conditions across Southern Africa, as El Niño is typically linked to below-average rainfall and drought risk in the region. CM4EW reports from the start of the 2023/24 main agricultural season began highlighting the potential for reduced precipitation and heightened risk of crop stress. As the season progressed, the CM4EW reports closely monitored rainfall trends, soil moisture levels, and vegetation health. At the end of the season, the June 2024 CM4EW report detailed the severe impacts of the El Niño induced drought on Southern Africa, which was worsened by an intense dry spell during the critical crop development period in February and early March, with overall production estimated to have been 14 percent below-average.

*Prior probabilistic rainfall forecasts for OND 2023 and DJF 2023-24 and outcomes during previous strong El Niños, as depicted in the* *October 2023 CM4EW report*. Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

*Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 conditions as of May 28th, as depicted in the* *June 2024 CM4EW report*. *The map depicts several areas with poor to failure crop yield outcomes, following below-average cumulative rainfall received during the 2023/24 El Niño event.*

The insights and early warnings provided in the CM4EW reports have been essential for timely humanitarian responses, helping to build resilience in food systems and better prepare communities as they adapt to ever-changing growing conditions and extreme weather events. Looking ahead, the CM4EW’s commitment to delivering accurate and timely information will be increasingly vital as climate impacts intensify. By further enhancing monitoring capabilities and expanding collaborations, the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor initiative will continue to support proactive measures to strengthen food security efforts worldwide.

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